Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 0.416168 0.476284 0.541486 0.617388 0.703249 0.797290 0.908028
2025-08-03 0.343484 0.426632 0.523817 0.645514 0.793542 0.967453 1.186965
2025-08-10 0.269526 0.361385 0.476478 0.630635 0.831013 1.081887 1.418961
2025-08-17 0.209465 0.302170 0.426261 0.603380 0.848377 1.173793 1.637001
2025-08-24 0.170327 0.263308 0.395756 0.596376 0.890356 1.302679 1.921427
2025-08-31 0.139263 0.230007 0.367154 0.586894 0.926811 1.428391 2.218868
2025-09-07 0.120121 0.211053 0.356270 0.601356 0.999833 1.615737 2.630576
2025-09-14 0.097766 0.182622 0.325697 0.579787 1.013418 1.714430 2.920111
2025-09-21 0.082240 0.162792 0.305749 0.572047 1.047518 1.848830 3.282650
2025-09-28 0.069096 0.144669 0.285572 0.560336 1.072510 1.970410 3.638208
2025-10-05 0.062098 0.136874 0.282706 0.579149 1.153635 2.197119 4.201224
2025-10-12 0.054170 0.125646 0.271380 0.579978 1.201219 2.369283 4.686662
2025-10-19 0.048183 0.117663 0.265806 0.592607 1.275910 2.605438 5.329131
2025-10-26 0.043234 0.111002 0.261899 0.608181 1.359064 2.868746 6.057508
2025-11-02 0.036176 0.097931 0.241854 0.586072 1.361348 2.973975 6.489557
2025-11-09 0.029743 0.084925 0.219550 0.555097 1.339879 3.028109 6.824985
2025-11-16 0.025565 0.076749 0.207081 0.544671 1.362334 3.176799 7.376343
2025-11-23 0.021974 0.069313 0.195031 0.533155 1.380472 3.318246 7.929288
2025-11-30 0.019925 0.065761 0.192251 0.544284 1.454066 3.591988 8.807722
2025-12-07 0.016848 0.058410 0.177967 0.523195 1.445390 3.676349 9.265667
2025-12-14 0.014701 0.053395 0.169143 0.515127 1.468348 3.837575 9.921593
2025-12-21 0.012752 0.048517 0.159742 0.503778 1.480945 3.975068 10.536505
2025-12-28 0.011865 0.047007 0.160052 0.520239 1.570544 4.313332 11.680238